An uneven affair

In its latest monthly report, released yesterday, OPEC stuck to its optimistic oil demand outlook. The oil organisation said that world oil demand is expected to increase by 6 mbpd this year, unchanged form last month’s estimate, to average 96.5 mbpd. Most of this recovery is expected to materialise later in the year amid expectations [...]

2021-05-12T08:41:25+00:00May 12th, 2021|

Pipeline shutdown has muted impact

The reaction to the Colonial pipeline outage has been surprisingly modest. After a predictably strong opening prices started to drift lower, and the eventual settlement was way off the morning peaks. (Incidentally, the market has also chosen to ignore a fire that broke out at the Burgan oil field in Kuwait, although production has not [...]

2021-05-11T07:50:55+00:00May 11th, 2021|

Colonial goes down

Recent robust US macro data has pointed to a strong rebound in demand in the world’s biggest economy. Not so on Friday. The latest non-farm payroll report showed that the US jobs machine unexpectedly stalled last month. Just 266,000 jobs were created in April, well short of a consensus for around 1 million new hires. [...]

2021-05-10T15:36:03+00:00May 10th, 2021|

Covid heebie-jeebies

Up until now, the oil market has largely looked through the surge in Covid-19 cases in India. Traders have taken the view, rightly or wrongly, that India’s oil demand growth will be subjected to a short and sharp hit. Crucially, it will not derail the global oil demand recovery. However, this optimistic stance was missing [...]

2021-05-07T09:01:33+00:00May 7th, 2021|

Sword of Damocles is blunt

Bipolarity characterizes the world today as Cold War II is in full swing. But apart from the battle for global economic, military, and cultural supremacy the globe is also split in two very distinguishable halves in another war – the war against the invisible enemy. Countries where the spread of the Covid-19 virus have been [...]

2021-05-06T10:38:04+00:00May 6th, 2021|

Up, up and away

A return to $70 oil is edging closer to becoming reality. Brent rallied $1.32/bbl on Tuesday to settle just shy of $69/bbl. The jump in oil prices came amid expectations of strong demand as western economies reopen. Indeed, anticipation of a pick-up in fuel and energy usage in the US and Europe over the summer [...]

2021-05-05T08:38:26+00:00May 5th, 2021|

Unabated confidence

Investors’ optimism is remarkable. The war against the pandemic has not been won, it is dragging on, yet looking back at April it appears that its devastating impact is safely buried in the unconscious part of our minds. The stellar performance came despite global infection rates are still high, India cannot breathe, and other parts [...]

2021-05-04T08:41:09+00:00May 4th, 2021|


Another day, another set of impressive US economic data. Yesterday’s docket of economic news was dominated by US GDP data for the first quarter of 2021. Figures showed US growth gathered pace after expanding at a 6.4% annualised rate last quarter, up from 4.3% in 4Q20. The world’s biggest economy is showing strong momentum as [...]

2021-04-30T08:29:05+00:00April 30th, 2021|

Perception rules again

What do you get when almost 2.5 mbpd of crude oil will gradually be released back to the market? A rally. After the Libyan force majeure was lifted the OPEC+ group re-confirmed its intention to go ahead with the planned tapering of output restriction in coming months. Clearly these extra barrels, 300,000 bpd from Libya [...]

2021-04-29T08:59:45+00:00April 29th, 2021|

Sticking to the script

An OPEC+ meeting that fails to wrong-foot market players. Who would have thought such a thing was possible? The OPEC+ monitoring committee met in the zoomsphere yesterday, a day earlier than planned. And unlike previous gatherings this year, the group failed to deliver any surprises as it stuck to plans to start easing oil output [...]

2021-04-28T07:38:01+00:00April 28th, 2021|
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