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So far Jess has created 385 blog entries.

Rally. Pause. Repeat.

The weeks-long rally took a breather yesterday. Brent initially broke through $75/bbl for the first time since April 2019 but ended the session marginally in the red as OPEC+ discussed raising oil production. Sources close to the producer group hinted that it was mulling over a possible increase of oil output from August. Separately, a [...]

2021-06-23T08:43:44+00:00June 23rd, 2021|

Risk is back on

It did not take long. Everything that was deemed way too risky to hold onto after the US central bank brought forward its estimated interest rate rise by a year or more last Wednesday turned fashionable again yesterday. And the dollar, which was in demand during the stock market weakness and the bond sell-off was [...]

2021-06-22T07:51:28+00:00June 22nd, 2021|

The Fed effect

When Brent was on its way to $147/bbl in the middle of 2008 its front-end structure slipped into contango on May 9. The outright price stood at $125.40/bbl that day. It rallied another $21/bbl in the subsequent two months whilst the discount of the front-month deepened. The curve did not confirm the optimism of the [...]

2021-06-21T09:40:54+00:00June 21st, 2021|

Dancing to the dollar’s tune

One of the first lessons taught to budding oil market observers is that a stronger dollar is bearish for prices. This truism was on full display yesterday. Brent and WTI eased back from two-year highs as the dollar index rallied to its highest since mid-April following the Fed’s unexpectedly hawkish turn. On Wednesday, the Federal [...]

2021-06-18T09:13:51+00:00June 18th, 2021|

Is there method to the madness?

It is obvious what the oil market is doing, it is not evident why. It is struggling on the other side of the Atlantic, especially products. The RBOB contract has fallen 2% in the past week and Heating Oil more than 1%. The 3-2-1 crack spread is under intense pressure, it is $11/bbl lower than [...]

2021-06-17T09:31:55+00:00June 17th, 2021|

Another day, another dollar

The story of the oil market is starting to sound like a broken record. Demand growth is outpacing supply and will continue to do so over the coming months. Against this supportive backdrop, the two leading crude markers hit fresh multi-year highs yesterday. Brent topped $74/bbl for the first time in two years while WTI [...]

2021-06-16T07:42:59+00:00June 16th, 2021|

Blame it on US gasoline

The oil market should have done better, especially after an encouraging morning when the crude oil benchmarks made fresh two and a half year highs. The US, however, thought otherwise and sellers emerged. The weakness was led by the RBOB contract, which finished the day 149 points lower. RBOB’s malaise actually started last Wednesday when [...]

2021-06-15T08:33:17+00:00June 15th, 2021|

Deal or no deal?

It’s a make-or-break week for the Iranian nuclear accord. Several rounds of talks have yet to yield a breakthrough. Negotiations between Tehran and world powers resumed over the weekend, in what is the last attempt to revive the agreement before the presidential election in Iran on Friday. Both sides certainly have their work cut out [...]

2021-06-14T07:41:27+00:00June 14th, 2021|

Prepare for warp drive

That was the message from OPEC’s updated oil forecasts. The ongoing vaccination efforts and pent-up demand following the easing of lockdowns are expected to add momentum to the economic rebound towards the end of this quarter. Throw in the traditional seasonal bump in summer demand and this makes for a strengthening consumption backdrop in the [...]

2021-06-11T08:34:42+00:00June 11th, 2021|
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