The desperate search for clues about the impact of the coronavirus epidemic continues. This search at the moment appears to be futile. It is simply impossible to predict with great confidence what the economic effect of the epidemic will be. All one can do is to take daily or weekly snapshots and try to figure [...]
The impression on the impact of the Covid-19 based on last week’s price movements was as confusing and uncertain as the containment of the virus itself. The general fall in the stock markets and the 3.7% jump in gold suggested that investors remained concerned about the economic implications of the outbreak. The Shanghai Composite index, [...]
Supply issues are irrelevant at the moment. The chairman of the Libyan National Oil Corporation suggested that his country’s production has already fallen to 400,000 bpd from well above 1 mbpd and will plummet to 72,000 bpd soon unless the blockade of its pipelines and export terminals by forces loyal to General Khalifa Haftar are [...]
Oil started the new year on the front foot, albeit only just. Brent and WTI eked out respective gains of 25 cts/bbl and 12 cts/bbl on the first day trading of 2020. Nevertheless, underlying sentiment remains well supported by trade optimism and deeper OPEC-led cuts which took effect at the start of this month. There [...]
They met; they cut; and the market paid no attention. OPEC day turned out to be an underwhelming affair if the price action is anything to go by. Indeed, the two leading crude markers ended the session little changed. This is in spite of the fact that the OPEC+ producer alliance is bracing for deeper supply [...]
The noises coming out of Washington have been very confusing lately. A bigger than normal dose of uncertainty surrounds the trade policy of the US administration. It all started last Friday when President Trump demonstrated its support for the Hong Kong protesters. This week he raised the possibility of not striking any deal with China until [...]
Like the Grinch, the season of goodwill seems lost on the US President. We are barely halfway through the week and the self-declared “Tariff Man” has already made a series of protectionist moves. On Monday, he made the surprise announcement that tariffs on steel imports from Brazil and Argentina would be restored. As if for [...]
From a bull’s perspective yesterday’s gains in the oil market actually feel like losses. Friday’s massive expiry related price falls was meant to be a one-off and the market was expected to recover yesterday. It duly did so in the early part of the trading session. The strength that took Brent $1.60/bbl above Friday’s settlement [...]
US traders had clearly thought long and hard about the oil market on Thanksgiving and concluded that prices are unjustifiably high, maybe due to the rising tension between the US and China because of the Hong Kong protests. Or they might have been disappointed with the lack of real upside progress on Thursday and Friday [...]
Trading ranges were narrow, volatility suffered, and liquidity dried up – all the hallmarks of a semi-functional market. There were 541 million bbls of Brent futures that changed hands yesterday. This compares with 784 million bbls on Wednesday or 911 million bbls on Tuesday. Whilst the US was busy giving thanks at home and its [...]
