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Technical Bounce

After a drop of more than $10/bbl it is not unusual to see some kind of technical rebound. Any positive development will get a bigger attention than it otherwise would deserve, and shorts will feel tempted to cover. It was clearly the case yesterday as WTI recovered $3.23/bbl and closed at $34.36/bbl. Brent was lagging [...]

2020-03-11T10:07:27+00:00March 11th, 2020|

Déjà vu in reverse?

The attack on Saudi oil installations is still not a too distant memory. It happened over a weekend and the gut reaction of the market pushed oil prices more than $10/bbl above the previous Friday’s settlement level. The rally, however, did not last and Brent closed almost $3/bbl off the day’s high and never went [...]

2020-03-10T14:00:43+00:00March 10th, 2020|

Russian roulette (Continued)

The least expected happened on Friday. The proposed reduction in OPEC+ production was rejected by Russia. It would have taken the combined cut up to 3.6 mbpd from the 2016 level. The proposal, based on the recommendation of the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee, pushed for an extra 1.5 mbpd decrease in the group’s production level [...]

2020-03-09T09:50:26+00:00March 9th, 2020|

Russian roulette

Decision Day. Crunch time. Moment of truth. Call it what you will, the oil market is at a critical junction. OPEC and its non-OPEC allies will meet today to finalise a supply response to the mounting coronavirus crisis. This follows yesterday’s gathering of the 13-member OPEC in which it acknowledged the adverse impact of the [...]

2020-03-06T11:39:03+00:00March 6th, 2020|

Firing Blanks

Rarely does a day go by without Donald Trump berating the Federal Reserve for not delivering more monetary easing measures. Yesterday was no different only this time the US President got his wish. The Fed shocked investors with an emergency rate cut of 50 basis points to counteract the impact of the coronavirus. This was [...]

2020-03-04T09:47:18+00:00March 4th, 2020|

New month, fresh hopes

Markets work in mysterious ways. The epidemic that originated from China shows no signs of abating yet risky assets performed one their biggest daily jumps yesterday. The US stock markets strengthened around 5% yesterday and European stock index futures are also on the rise this morning. Oil tracked equities and WTI gained nearly $2/bbl to [...]

2020-03-03T23:16:42+00:00March 3rd, 2020|

Sellers return en masse

The desperate search for clues about the impact of the coronavirus epidemic continues. This search at the moment appears to be futile. It is simply impossible to predict with great confidence what the economic effect of the epidemic will be. All one can do is to take daily or weekly snapshots and try to figure [...]

2020-02-26T07:48:33+00:00February 25th, 2020|

Premature Optimism

The impression on the impact of the Covid-19 based on last week’s price movements was as confusing and uncertain as the containment of the virus itself. The general fall in the stock markets and the 3.7% jump in gold suggested that investors remained concerned about the economic implications of the outbreak. The Shanghai Composite index, [...]

2020-02-26T07:49:07+00:00February 24th, 2020|
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