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Trump V Kung Flu

Markets hate uncertainty. And we saw plenty of it on Friday. Oil and equities were a sea of red as a US-centric session added to the growing air of uncertainty. To begin with, stimulus hopes were dealt a blow as optimism for a breakthrough on a coronavirus relief package fizzled out. This came as fresh [...]

2020-10-05T13:40:11+00:00October 5th, 2020|

Laggards and speculators on the naughty step

OPEC+ took centre stage yesterday as the group’s monitoring committee gathered for its latest monthly review. As expected, the producer alliance did not recommend any changes to the current agreement. Instead, the focus was on conformity to agreed cuts. OPEC+ kingpins Saudi Arabia and Russia pressed the likes of Iraq, Nigeria and the UAE for [...]

2020-09-18T09:04:37+00:00September 18th, 2020|

Worries abound

Trouble is piling up for risk assets. Sentiment was knocked yesterday by a trifecta of simmering geopolitical tensions, the raging COVID pandemic and disappointing US jobs data. Tensions between the US and China have risen of late after the latter was ordered to close its consulate in Houston. This set the stage for a tit-for-tat [...]

2020-07-24T09:06:29+00:00July 24th, 2020|

This is war

It is being fought on two fronts: central banks and governments against COVID-19 and Saudi Arabia against Russia. After the Fed and the Bank of England introduced emergency rate cuts it was the turn of the ECB. The European Central Bank will provide banks with loan and would increase its bond purchases by €120 billion [...]

2020-03-13T11:54:22+00:00March 13th, 2020|

It’s official, it’s pandemic

The World Health Organization now describes the coronavirus as pandemic. It warns that more countries will join Iran and Italy that are already in the frontline of the disease. The announcement triggered a chain of events that sent investors in the financial and commodity markets looking for shelter. The new label will neither accelerate nor [...]

2020-03-12T10:00:59+00:00March 12th, 2020|

Technical Bounce

After a drop of more than $10/bbl it is not unusual to see some kind of technical rebound. Any positive development will get a bigger attention than it otherwise would deserve, and shorts will feel tempted to cover. It was clearly the case yesterday as WTI recovered $3.23/bbl and closed at $34.36/bbl. Brent was lagging [...]

2020-03-11T10:07:27+00:00March 11th, 2020|

Déjà vu in reverse?

The attack on Saudi oil installations is still not a too distant memory. It happened over a weekend and the gut reaction of the market pushed oil prices more than $10/bbl above the previous Friday’s settlement level. The rally, however, did not last and Brent closed almost $3/bbl off the day’s high and never went [...]

2020-03-10T14:00:43+00:00March 10th, 2020|

Russian roulette (Continued)

The least expected happened on Friday. The proposed reduction in OPEC+ production was rejected by Russia. It would have taken the combined cut up to 3.6 mbpd from the 2016 level. The proposal, based on the recommendation of the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee, pushed for an extra 1.5 mbpd decrease in the group’s production level [...]

2020-03-09T09:50:26+00:00March 9th, 2020|

Russian roulette

Decision Day. Crunch time. Moment of truth. Call it what you will, the oil market is at a critical junction. OPEC and its non-OPEC allies will meet today to finalise a supply response to the mounting coronavirus crisis. This follows yesterday’s gathering of the 13-member OPEC in which it acknowledged the adverse impact of the [...]

2020-03-06T11:39:03+00:00March 6th, 2020|
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