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Swelling stocks, new variant

There was not a lot to digest yesterday but the developments that have actually emerged are having a devastating impact on oil prices overnight. OPEC’s initial assessment of the co-ordinated SPR release and the sudden appearance of a new variant of the coronavirus raises serious concerns about economic growth and the oil balance in coming [...]

2021-11-26T08:54:46+00:00November 26th, 2021|

Knee-jerk reaction or is SPR release really an own goal?

Wednesday’s announcement on the co-ordinated use of strategic oil stocks for non-emergency purposes muddied the water on the oil front and this mud has not settled yet. It might take some days and weeks until the true impact of this unusual and seemingly desperate step becomes obvious. The initial reaction was a massive rally, not [...]

2021-11-25T11:46:35+00:00November 25th, 2021|

Sell the rumour, buy the fact

Forget the strong dollar, flare ups in coronavirus infections or concerns about inflation. Yesterday it was all about the battle between consumers and producers for supremacy. If it were a football game one might say producers are winning one goal to nil and their opponent has scored a rather spectacular own goal – at least [...]

2021-11-24T09:17:20+00:00November 24th, 2021|

The day of unnamed sources

The rumour mill has gone into overdrive. Conspicuously, there are contrasting interests and views that have and will have profound impacts on oil prices and cause spikes in volatility. After the rejection from the OPEC+ group to increase output consuming nations are turning to the last resorts to put extra barrels to the market – [...]

2021-11-24T09:21:30+00:00November 23rd, 2021|

Two birds with one stone

Who would have thought that a small EU nation with the population of less than 9 million will provide a (possibly short-term) relief for central bankers as well as consuming countries that suffer under high oil prices? After Austria announced a nationwide lockdown on Friday the market went into freefall. As the NYMEX RBOB contract [...]

2021-11-24T09:34:40+00:00November 22nd, 2021|

Taking the fight to OPEC

Joe Biden is in a pickle. Asking domestic producers to boost output is politically incompatible with his administration’s climate agenda. So, he is forced to lean on others. Having failed to persuade OPEC+ to speed up its production, the US is now piling pressure on the world’s largest oil importing nations. President Biden has reportedly [...]

2021-11-19T12:14:41+00:00November 19th, 2021|

Total capitulation?

Few months ago, a weekly US inventory report similar to yesterday’s would have triggered a respectable price rally. It was a reliably supportive set of data that showed crude oil inventories decline by 2.1 million bbls due to the 490,000 bpd fall in net crude oil imports and the 1.2% rise in refinery utilization rates. [...]

2021-11-18T12:21:31+00:00November 18th, 2021|

Winds of change

Everything that has a beginning has an end. OECD oil inventories have declined since 3Q20 and in doing so have sunk to their lowest levels since 1Q15. Yet as we prepare to say goodbye to 2021, we are also poised to bid farewell to the long-running drawdown in global oil stocks. That was the key [...]

2021-11-17T10:11:55+00:00November 17th, 2021|

Words can be louder than action

Unquestionably, the most significant event of the past two weeks and possibly the last few months that was expected to shape the future of the globe for decades to come was the climate conference held in Glasgow. It was supposed to ensure that the commitments undertaken in the Paris climate agreement of 2015 will be [...]

2021-11-16T09:39:35+00:00November 16th, 2021|

A week of two halves

It all started so well. Oil prices rose to a two-week high in the early part of last week on the back of tightening oil inventories. Yet the feel-good factor did not last. Supply and demand factors subsequently took a back seat to US inflation worries. Indeed, the risk asset complex was sent into reverse [...]

2021-11-15T12:39:25+00:00November 15th, 2021|
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