The IEA will have been struck off many a Christmas card list yesterday after releasing its updated oil forecasts. Whereas the EIA and OPEC agree that the oil market will be balanced in the first three months of next year, this optimism was lost on the IEA. Instead, the agency rocked the consensus boat by [...]
Considering the quality of yesterday’s weekly US stock data from the EIA the oil market did extremely well. The damage was actually limited to the half an hour period right after the release of the stats after which the market concentrated on recovering from the nasty drop. These efforts are still ongoing this morning. The [...]
Surprise, surprise: the post-OPEC bullish jolt is all but a distant memory. Oil prices have struggled for traction this week as demand concerns returned to the fore. Both crude markers spent much of yesterday wallowing in negative territory but did well to eke out the slightest of gains. This came as rumours circulated that Washington [...]
There are three events the market has to deal with this month that could potentially have a far-reaching impact on the formation of oil and equity prices. The first one is the OPEC+ strategy for next year. The meeting that took place last week was positive as far as production levels are concerned but market players [...]
The OPEC+ circus rolled into town last week with the oil market in dire need of a positive signal. Expectations for extra output curbs were running high given that a supply surplus was looming. Suffice to say, inaction would have amounted to price suicide. Mercifully for oil bulls, the producer alliance took bold and pre-emptive [...]
They met; they cut; and the market paid no attention. OPEC day turned out to be an underwhelming affair if the price action is anything to go by. Indeed, the two leading crude markers ended the session little changed. This is in spite of the fact that the OPEC+ producer alliance is bracing for deeper supply [...]
The noises coming out of Washington have been very confusing lately. A bigger than normal dose of uncertainty surrounds the trade policy of the US administration. It all started last Friday when President Trump demonstrated its support for the Hong Kong protesters. This week he raised the possibility of not striking any deal with China until [...]
Like the Grinch, the season of goodwill seems lost on the US President. We are barely halfway through the week and the self-declared “Tariff Man” has already made a series of protectionist moves. On Monday, he made the surprise announcement that tariffs on steel imports from Brazil and Argentina would be restored. As if for [...]
From a bull’s perspective yesterday’s gains in the oil market actually feel like losses. Friday’s massive expiry related price falls was meant to be a one-off and the market was expected to recover yesterday. It duly did so in the early part of the trading session. The strength that took Brent $1.60/bbl above Friday’s settlement [...]
US traders had clearly thought long and hard about the oil market on Thanksgiving and concluded that prices are unjustifiably high, maybe due to the rising tension between the US and China because of the Hong Kong protests. Or they might have been disappointed with the lack of real upside progress on Thursday and Friday [...]
